Though,
America’s prediction may not necessarily come to pass, the factors it had
relied upon to arrive at this prediction (unless properly addressed) warn of
upheavals in Nigeria, to say the least. And though the country has survived several
rounds of serious turmoil as a result of chronic socio-political and economic
crises, her so-called Vision 2020 is of course unrealistic, because it does not
seem to be based on any credible scientific indices. Incidentally, the value of
predictions and expectations in the modern age is measured by the extent of its
compliance with scientific reasoning and intelligent analyses away from mere
rhetoric. Therefore the relevant issue is actually, the very prospect of
Nigeria’s corporate survival by the year 2020.
Contrary to the general notion, Nigeria is not likely to break up along the North and South geographical boundaries, neither is she likely to split into any viable political entities for that matter. Because there is no regional, ethnic or religious block organized enough to function as a corporate entity immediately in the wake of the country’s break up. Moreover, neither the proponents let alone the opponents of the break up have any substantive fallback plan likely to fill in the political vacuum in their respective regions, should the country collapse spontaneously, as America predicted.
Furthermore,
throughout the country, there are hardly any political leaders charismatic
enough to inspire their respective people, for they have long ago lost their
credibility, primarily for their failure to live up to the expectations of
their masses over the decades.
Therefore,
what is most likely to occur in the wake of the country’s collapse under the
current circumstances is total anarchy instead, whereby warlords, criminal gang
leaders, terrorist and drug barons will run the show.
The
South for instance and despite its huge economic potential is not likely to
come together and form a viable country, because they are deeply polarized
along ethnic lines. The two major ethnic groups in the region are often at
loggerheads, and there is hardly any harmony between them and the minority
ethnic groups amidst them either. The
minorities on the other hand mistrust each other and are vulnerable to their
respective elite’s manipulation for the control of the vast oil wealth in the
area, which will be the target of many interest groups within the region and
beyond.
The North on the other hand is even worse in many fundamental respects. For instance, the hitherto perfect cohesion between its various minority ethnic groups on one hand and the dominant ethnic group on the other has eroded, thanks to the successive governments’ poor leadership policies over the past few decades. Enmity under the pretext of religious differences in particular has crept in to redefine their relationship. Hence their prospect of coming together to form a viable country is ruled out. Likewise, the minorities’ prospect of forming a country of their own does not seem feasible either, due to territorial constrains, multilateral mistrust among themselves also, as well as lack of instantly exploitable resources to sustain a country.
As
for the so-called core North in particular, the circumstances are worst,
because after all, it is the poorest region in the country, and the most
backward even in Nigerian standard. Granted they are relatively cohesive thanks
to their shared religiously oriented cultural affiliation, they nonetheless
don’t have necessary economic resources substantial enough to sustain a viable
country immediately.
In
view of the aforementioned, and while I still believe and call for positive
reform in Nigeria, I also urge the stakeholders in all parts of the country to
consider fallback initiatives for their respective regions, lest the country
crumbles spontaneously. After all, the country operates a federal system under
which all states are supposed to take care of themselves to a large extent,
instead of looking up to the federal government for basic sustenance.
The
imperative of such fallback initiative is more pressing as per as the so-called
core North is concerned, because it is the region to which all country’s woes
are rightly or wrongly attributed. As a matter of fact, the proponents of the
break up are primarily motivated by their wish to get rid of it, because after
all, some failed coup plotters had already attempted to remove it from the rest
of Nigeria more than two decades ago.
