Diplomatic counterinsurgency

Also published in Daily Trust

The Nigerian military’s embarrassing display of tactical cluelessness in the battlefields against Boko Haram terrorists and the obvious failure of the country’s security intelligence agencies in intelligence gathering, processing and utilization simply reflect the amount of confusion at the country’s political leadership level.   

Though my comment will definitely attract a sarcastic dismissal from the army personnel and their apologists as a mere naïve assessment by a “bloody civilian”, yet considering the rate at which the terrorists continue to capture more Nigerian territories, force the army to take to their heels, which the Nigerian military authorities shamelessly call a tactical manoeuvre, I wonder if the situation could be objectively described in a different way.

This situation increasingly underscores the imperative of employing counter-insurgency diplomacy and other non-combat strategies to end the crisis. After all, ever since the collapse of Dr. Datti Ahmed-led mediation effort between the federal government and Boko Haram insurgents more than two years ago, the gap of mutual distrust between the two parties has continued to widen making it increasingly impossible to create the minimum amount of mutual trust that would allow for peace negotiations to take place.

By the way, the aborted Dr. Datti-led mediation effort was the only genuine mediation effort that actually involved the leadership of the terror gang, as confirmed by the gang’s leader himself, Abubakar Shekau. All the federal government’s subsequent efforts to re-establish contact with the actual gang’s leadership failed, even though the government’s delegates never admitted their failure to do deliver. Likewise, all the subsequent mediation initiatives and efforts by some respected public figures could not reach out to the gang’s leadership hence failed to make any breakthrough.

Besides, there have been several fake mediation efforts initiated by some unscrupulous elements who tried to take advantage of the government’s obvious desperation and confusion to swindle it by pretending to be in direct contact with the terrorists, and by pretending that they could mediate and broker peace between them and the government. They were apparently motivated by the Niger-Delta militants amnesty programme, which became a huge money-making venture for many corrupt government officials and other so-called mediators. 
Some of such devious vested interests did even manage to mislead some respected public figures including religious leaders and involved them in their phony mediation initiatives. This is even though some of such mediators might have actually managed to reach out to some members of the terror gang or some splinter cells, yet it was quite obvious that, none of them managed to reach out to Shekau-led Shura council, which is the elite clique that can take a decision with respect to war and peace, in the group’s intricate command structure.

Even the controversial Australian negotiator, Dr Stephen Davis and notwithstanding whether he was actually hired by the federal government to negotiate peace with the group on its behalf or not, and even if he had managed to reach out to some of the insurgents, it is clear that he never had any contact with the real gang’s leadership.  This is quite evident from his claim that, as part of their conditions to stop their violent activities, Boko Haram leaders had demanded that the government send their children to school, which is basically contrary to their repeatedly stated fundamental mission.

Also his claim that the so-called Boko Haram leaders he had met with trusted him because he was neither an American nor a British as they had thought cast doubt on the authenticity of his claim that they were indeed real Boko Haram leaders. It is well known that, Boko Haram would not have trusted him simply because he was an Australian not an American or a British. After all, Shekau has repeatedly threatened to kill all non-Muslims and Muslims as well who don’t believe in his ideology e.g. those who believe in democracy, and has indeed always carried out his threat.

Besides, Shekau wouldn’t have failed to refer, or at least hint, to that purported mediation effort by Dr. Davis. After all, he has in the past referred to the aborted Dr Datti-led mediation effort, as he also referred to the incident when some of his delegates who were supposed to negotiate peace with the government in Kaduna some time ago were treacherously killed by the security agencies.

In any case, as the situation on the ground stands now and as a matter of urgency, the government should engage experts in counter-terrorism diplomacy who have the necessary expertise to deliver. Obviously, expertise in this context necessarily includes adequate knowledge of the ideological aspect of the group’s motivation, which clearly stemmed from gross misunderstanding of many Qur’anic verses, prophetic hadiths and indeed the mission of the Islamic religion as a whole as well as its method to achieve this mission.

In doing so, the federal government should swallow its already empty pride and engage the services of people who are most likely to enjoy some amount of recognition in the eyes of the real Boko Haram leadership i.e. Shekau-led Shura council, bearing in mind that,  the mainstream retired or active politicians or civil servants among whom it usually selects negotiators on its behalf don’t have any credibility in the eyes of the real Boko Haram leadership, as a matter of fact; they can’t even establish contact with them, either.

Admittedly, the process will not be easy anyway in view of the sheer amount of mutual distrust between the two warring parties. Therefore, the mediators should draw and implement effective confidence building measures with a view to establishing contact with Shekau. Also instead of pursuing or expecting immediate restoration of peace at once, the federal government should seek and/or accept a truce offer that will stop the ongoing bloodshed and indiscriminate displacement of people. If maintained, this truce period is likely to provide the much needed respite that would allow for further negotiations until a permanent ceasefire is achieved.