The push to defeat Boko Haram

Also published in Daily Trust

Since the beginning of the ongoing war against Boko Haram insurgents, the performance of Nigerian military has fluctuated between dramatic exploits and mysterious relapse, which have understandably generated public commendation or condemnation accordingly.

The current round of stepped-up military offensive against the insurgents comes amid deepening sense of despair and frustration with the way the federal government is handling the crisis, which explains why Nigerians greet it with apparently cautious optimism instead of outright jubilation.

There are worries about the government’s commitment and the military’s ability or willingness to maintain the momentum and sustain the tempo attained. Many Nigerians worry that the current intense military offensive may also soon wind down and eventually relapse.

Public confidence in the military had dropped to its lowest. Besides, even though Nigerian government has been shamelessly claiming credit for liberating the towns and villages its military had lost to Boko Haram militants, the nature and the exact extent of Nigerian soldiers’ role in the operation can’t be immediately ascertained, in view of the fact that, the operation is being jointly conducted by the Cameroonian, Nigerien and Chadian forces, in addition to Nigerian soldiers.

Meanwhile, even if they are indeed reclaiming the territories unaided as they want us to believe,   the amount of success being dramatically achieved poses many important questions and raises many issues that need urgent explanation. For instance, the suddenly improved soldiers’ morale and their improved performance on the battleground certainly beg for an explanation, even though Nigerians never really believed, in the first place, that the army was too ill-equipped to tackle the ragtag Boko Haram militants.

In any case, this intensified military onslaught and other similar onslaughts previously conducted have further disproved the unfounded claims about Boko Haram’s combat capabilities, which government’s apologists deliberately exaggerate in order to justify its failure to tackle the insurgents.
It has also proved that the insurgents are not that strong after all, and that they are by no means comparable to Nigerian Army anyway, only that their sheer audacity has outweighed the Army’s morale, which explains their ability to defeat the Army in several encounters and even seize many towns and villages across the North East.

Besides, the timing of the onslaught, which comes in the wake of the controversial election postponement and which began immediately after the embattled President Jonathan vowed to significantly subdue the insurgents within the six weeks election extension period and even assured Nigerians that the military would capture Shekau alive within the same period, equally raises more questions and indeed gives credence to at least some of the conspiracy theories alleging the complicity of some very influential vested interests in government and military, in the persistence of this crisis.

After all, Nigerians simply can’t understand why government had waited this long before it finally decided to accord priority to the urgent need to confront the insurgency head-on, or even why it needs its neighbours’ military assistance to tackle a mere gang of armed miscreants.

Similarly, coming against the backdrop of the increasingly tense political atmosphere in the country where President Goodluck Jonathan and the ruling party are facing the most serious challenge and threat of election defeat hence struggling to cling to power at any cost, the whole development can’t be disconnected from the political intrigues being employed in the ongoing power struggle.

Though all these suspicions remain unresolved for now and may indeed not be resolved anytime soon, the need to sustain and follow this operation through this time around has never been more urgent. Nigeria simply can’t afford to fail. Besides, Nigerians, particularly in the most affected region; North East in particular are obviously and rightly more interested in the end result of this operation, they are anxious to see the end of this conflict no matter who accomplishes it.

It is far less costly (if it indeed costs anything at all) to argue over who takes credit for ending the conflict than sustain the raging argument and blame game over who is responsible for masterminding the crisis and/or sponsoring it.

President Jonathan can take advantage of this situation to salvage what remains of his crumbling credibility within and outside Nigeria by ensuring that the current momentum in the ongoing military operation against Boko Haram terrorists is maintained, and to also ensure that the situation does not relapse again. This would certainly lead to their defeat, which would in turn earn him the enviable credit for crushing them; an achievement history will always remember. 

This is even though it may not improve his re-election chances anyway in view of the apparently irreparable damage it has already suffered, yet, he has no any other option, as there is no way he can manipulate the situation to win back enough public confidence and support to retain his position in a free and fair election.

Besides, should the situation relapse again under whatever pretext, he cannot absolve himself from the allegation of being principally responsible for the persistence of the conflict, as many conspiracy theorists vehemently insist.