As the war
between Israel and Iran rages on over the latter’s nuclear program, a look at
its antecedents and underlying politics provides the right context to
comprehend the circumstances surrounding it.
Iran's nuclear
program dates back to the 1950s, under the then Shah of Iran, Mohammad
Reza Shah Pahlavi. In 1979, Ayatollah
Khomeini led a revolution in the country, overthrowing the Shah and establishing
a theocracy that declared enmity against the United States and vowed to expand the
revolution across the Middle East and beyond.
Until 1979,
Iran’s nuclear program was Western-supported and civilian-oriented, aimed at achieving
rapid technological advancement.
Following the
revolution, the West terminated its support for the program, while the new
regime in Tehran suspended it, arguing that it was un-Islamic in the first
place.
However, in the
1990s, Iran quietly resumed nuclear development, citing its need for nuclear
energy for peaceful use. By 2000, Iranian defectors and Western intelligence
agencies had begun suspecting Iran of pursuing a nuclear weapons capability.
The United States and its Western allies oppose Iran acquiring a
nuclear weapon for fear that its regional rivals, e.g. Turkey, Saudi Arabia,
and Egypt, may equally pursue their
own nuclear programs, thereby triggering a nuclear arms race across the
already volatile Middle East.
The
US is worried that a nuclear-armed Iran could be more audacious in supporting its
proxy militias in Iraq, Yemen, and, until recently, Syria and Lebanon, which threaten
U.S. interests and allies in the region. There are also concerns that with
nuclear weapons in Iran’s hands, the risk of accidental or intentional nuclear
conflict in the region is greater.
Besides,
the US believes that if, by any means, Iran manages to acquire nuclear weapons,
its (US) allies in the region and elsewhere will lose confidence in its security
guarantees, which will hugely affect the potency of its ‘global leadership’ and
diplomatic influence.
Meanwhile, Iran,
which is a signatory to the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), has
maintained that its nuclear program is for peaceful use, hence doesn’t
contravene the treaty that bans
non-nuclear-weapon states from developing or acquiring nuclear arms.
Of course, the
US and Israel never believe Iran. Israel is particularly worried as it
considers Iran’s nuclear program a direct threat to its very existence. After
all, Iran’s anti-Israel rhetoric and threats to eliminate the Jewish state have
been particularly constant. Interestingly, in their tactical PR strategy to
attract the solidarity and sympathy of global powers, successive Israeli
politicians have always exaggerated Iran’s threats against Israel; that way,
they secure disproportionately favourable concessions and privileges for Israel
on the world political stage.
Furthermore, Israel
always leverages its strong alliance with the United States and its Western
allies to push for sustained pressure on Iran to compel it to abandon its
nuclear program.
Ironically,
it's an open secret that Israel has nuclear weapons, which it, for tactical
reasons, neither confirms nor denies.
On their part, and
regardless of their professed solidarity with Iran in this war, Persian Gulf
Arab countries, Egypt, and Jordan, believe Iran pursues a nuclear weapon
capability to leverage the political weight that comes with it to dominate them
in geopolitical struggle.
Now, the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which had been involved in Iran’s
nuclear program before the 1979 revolution, resumed inspecting Iran’s nuclear
sites in 2003 after some Iranian opposition exposed undeclared Natanz and Arak nuclear
facilities in Iran in 2002.
Since then, the
United States has accused Iran of pursuing a nuclear weapon capability, which
Iran has always denied, insisting that its nuclear program is peaceful.
The United
Nations Security Council imposed economic sanctions on Iran, while the United
States unilaterally imposed more sanctions on it.
Many diplomatic
initiatives failed to break the resultant deadlock, while tensions in the
region continued to rise.
There was, however, a temporary breakthrough
when the United States, during the Barack Obama administration, China, Russia,
France, the United Kingdom, in addition to Germany, on the one hand, and Iran,
on the other, signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) under which
Iran agreed to reduce uranium enrichment, dismantle atomic reactors, and accept
regular inspections of its nuclear facilities by International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA). In return, economic sanctions were lifted.
Israel was never happy with that agreement,
crying foul that it was designed in such a way that it would eventually allow
Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon capability.
Saudi Arabia was also suspicious about some
provisions of the agreement and equally concluded that the agreement provided a
window for Tehran to acquire nuclear weapons eventually. Since then, it
reportedly went ahead to secretly launch a nuclear program with China, Russia,
South Korea, France, and, speculatively, Pakistan, as technical partners. However, there has been no confirmed report
about the level it has achieved so far.
In 2018, President Donald Trump unilaterally
withdrew from the JCPOA, rendering it effectively useless. He also went ahead
to restore U.S. sanctions on Iran. In return, Iran resumed limiting the IAEA's
access to its nuclear facilities as it resumed uranium enrichment.
As economic
sanctions continued to cripple Iran’s economy, it accelerated the process of
uranium enrichment anyway. Meanwhile, Israel, using its notorious intelligence
agency, Mossad, managed to assassinate several key Iranian nuclear scientists
and conducted many aerial attacks on Natanz and other nuclear facilities in
Iran.
Upon his return
to the US presidency, Donald Trump demanded Iran submit to fresh negotiations.
Though Iran initially resisted, insisting on reviving the JCPOA, it gave in, paving
the way for the negotiations to start in Muscat, Oman.
However, after
several rounds of talks without headway, tensions began to rise again as the end
of the 60-day ultimatum given by Donald Trump for the talks to conclude was
fast approaching. Trump had warned Iran of military action should the talks
fail.
Meanwhile, on
13 June 2025, and less than two days before what could have been the last round
of talks between the United States and Iran, Israel surprised the whole world by
launching aerial bombardments on Iran and ground operations by Mossad agents scattered
across Iran.
A full-scale
war erupted between the two countries, with Iran firing hundreds of ballistic
missiles and drones into Israel, and Israel using fighter jets and drones to
attack Iran.
Now that the
United States has attacked Iran’s three major nuclear facilities, including the
purportedly 800-meter-deep Fordow nuclear facility bunker, it
remains to be seen to what extent the US involvement will affect the course of
the war and its implications in the aftermath.
Though there have been cease-fire initiatives, the war doesn’t seem
to come to an end anytime soon, given the rigidity that characterises the
stances of the parties involved. This is particularly true as the longer the war lasts, the
greater the risk of further escalation and wider regional conflict.
