Geopolitical Dynamics in the 2015 Elections

Also Published in DAILY TRUST

 

Even before the ordinary Nigerians begin to count the cost of their mistake of “electing” the majority of their current “leaders” including the President in 2011, for it might be too early, it is obvious that, political struggle for 2015 elections has already begun. And this by implication means that, the voluminous files of unfulfilled promises made by those “elected leaders” during the 2011 elections campaign have now been dumped in archives, as “more important issues” i.e. 2015 elections are now up.

Presidential election; being the most important of all takes lion’s share of attention especially since it became apparent that the incumbent President will contest for re-election, notwithstanding his ambiguous denial. This is quite evident considering the influence he reportedly exerted to ensure the emergence of Bamanga Tukur as chairman; Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, who was widely believed to have been imposed on the party in order to pave the way and facilitate the eventual emergence of the incumbent President as the party’s Presidential candidate in 2015.

Incidentally, the 2015 presidential election in particular would prove quite different from the previous elections held in the country for a number of reasons. This is because the country’s political elites are increasingly polarizing along the lines of geopolitics and indeed ethno-religious affiliation.

This explains why the issue of competence and credibility of aspirants and potential candidates in 2015 elections is hardly if at all talked about, which by implication warns of not only the continuation of the status quo after the 2015 but also its deterioration for that matter. After all, it is the year by which a research conducted by the US National Intelligence Council in 2005 had predicted the collapse of Nigeria altogether.

The unfolding socio-political developments suggest that the impending political struggle for the position of President of the Republic would be mainly between the North-West/North-East and South-West geopolitical zones on one hand and the remaining zones on the other. However, though the North-West/North-East and South-West geopolitical zones collectively have the potential to pose a formidable challenge to the incumbent President, their success depends entirely on their ability to form a strong alliance, draw effective mass mobilization strategy and follow it through accordingly.

Perhaps, this is what inspired the recent meeting in Lagos between General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) and Bola Tinubu, who reportedly agreed to begin early talks for possible alliance or merger in order to dislodge the PDP from Aso Rock.  After all, in view of the current socio-political realities on the ground, both the North-West/North East and South-West geopolitical zones have actually no alternative to one another other if they are to successfully influence the national political equation in their favour.

For instance, the North-West/North East geopolitical zones combined, which used to be the most powerful geopolitical zone in the country, is now struggling to reclaim its lost political relevance and indeed political glory, which it lost in a political suicide committed by the Northern region as a whole in 1999.

Furthermore, the region has lost its traditional political alliance with the South-South and South East geopolitical zones, and worse still is how even a substantial part of it i.e. Middle Belt has literally broken away politically from the North’s political agenda, and they are not likely to be won back in the foreseeable future. As a matter of fact, their various ethno-religious groups have from time to time warned that they will not support any Northern political agenda anymore. The most recent of such warnings was from the Northern States Christian Elders Forum (NOSCEF). After all, the 2011 presidential election results from most of that geopolitical zone said it all.

All these amongst other things present the North-West/North-East geopolitical zone with virtually no alternative but to go into alliance with the South-West geopolitical zone, which was incidentally its main political rival amongst the country’s geopolitical zones in the past.

On the other hand, the South-West can’t possibly forge any viable political alliance strong enough to challenge the President except with the North-West/North-East geopolitical zones. This is because under the current political equation in the country, the incumbent President would certainly maintain the support of his South-South geopolitical zone, and probably keep the support of the majority of the people in the Middle Belt geopolitical zone and indeed prevail over the South-East’s presidential ambition in 2015.

Nonetheless, the South-West is still relatively more politically advantaged than the North-West/North-East combined, which explains why they are not likely to agree with the latter’s possible proposal to present a single presidential candidate from the North in 2015 under an alliance agreement. After all, they had literally double-crossed Ribadu in 2011, when they pretended to nominate him as their presidential candidate knowingly that they were not actually serious, instead they simply wanted to score a political goal i.e. to dispel the general suspicion of their party as an ethnic based party, and pave way for themselves to introduce their real candidate in future presidential election.

In any case, what is actually important to note while forging an alliance to challenge the status quo in 2015 is that, if the few patriotic Nigerian politicians are really serious enough to affect a change, then they must look beyond their partisan, ethno-religious and regional differences in order to present the best candidates for various political offices across the country, work in perfect coordination as a team to mobilize people and raise public awareness on the imperative of considering the competence and credibility of candidates irrespective of their political parties’ affiliations.

Moreover, it is noteworthy that, defeating the PDP is not an end and should not be either; rather it could be a means to an end. After all, the other opposition parties aren’t substantially different from the PDP in reality, in view of their equally undemocratic internal politics and equally corrupt, incompetent and/or questionable characters who are their potential aspirants and candidates for various political offices at different levels.

Therefore, once opposition parties forging an alliance approach the issue within their narrow respective political parties’ views or adopt any other yardsticks apart from competence and credibility in adopting consensus candidates, they will definitely fail, which by implication means the continuation of the status quo.