Also Published
in DAILY TRUST
My last week’s article in this column entitled
“North’s Readiness for a Division” (Daily Trust, Friday, April 27, 2012) has
elicited many interesting comments and equally provoked many emotional
reactions some of which even accused me of treason against the north,
collecting “brown envelops” or simply being “among those sponsored columnists”
as someone put it.
Needless to say, the issue at stake is much
more important than responding to such unfounded allegations, because after all
it is not worth it in the first place. Incidentally, when I argued in that
article that, the north is presently not ready to go on its own, I made sure that I
emphasized on the phrase “notwithstanding its potential” either expressly or
impliedly whereby necessary. Nevertheless, many commentators concluded that I
was simply denying the north’s potential to survive if Nigeria disintegrates.
Nevertheless, I insist that, no matter how huge
North’s potential are, it can’t immediately fill up the sudden gigantic
economic vacuum, which will be inevitably created in the region once the
country disintegrates prematurely. This is because potential need investment,
work and time to transform into real resources.
For instance, the much-talked about
agricultural potential in the region need huge infrastructural facilities to
transform the sector from largely subsistence farming by peasant farmers into
mechanized farming, which is not necessarily dictated by rainy season,
and produces agricultural produce of industrial scale to export it to
international markets.
Likewise, the oil said to be available in some
parts of the region also needs gigantic exploration and exploitation
infrastructures including the provision of pipeline to connect with Atlantic
Ocean coastal areas in order to export and market it in global markets.
Such massive investments are necessary on all
other potential said to be available in the region. And it is obvious that, to
provide all these, you need billions of dollars, which are simply not
available. After all, a Hausa proverb says “saida ruwan ciki ake jan na rijiya”
which literally means, you can’t fetch water from the well when you are too
thirsty to work.
As a matter of fact, in the event of Nigeria’s
premature disintegration, I wonder where the resources necessary for the
maintenance of the existing decrepit infrastructures (e.g. power
generation/transmission plants) will be immediately secured to avoid its total
breakdown.
One can imagine the scenario in a typical
northern Nigerian state when Nigeria abruptly ceases to exist. I am sure,
provided he is able to free himself from the clutches of emotion and prejudice,
he will definitely picture circumstances where security personnel e.g. police,
SSS, military and other federal government employees in different economic,
financial and academic sectors abandon their posts and duties, for they will
certainly never work for free.
Furthermore, even if the state government has
some reserve to pay one or two months’ salaries of its workers, it is obvious
that it will soon run out of cash hence fail to meet its obligations towards
its workers, let alone implement any projects on the ground.
This picture will look even gloomier if
imagined against the background of the current security crises ravaging the
country and the region in particular. Incidentally, this is not a pessimistic
view neither is it my wish of course. Instead it is a realistic view dictated
by the current socio-political and economic dynamics. After all, gone are the
days when people would take things for granted, leave it to chance or just
count on luck to get it right.
Therefore, it is unfortunately ironic that,
when Nigerian thieving elites disregard their regional and ethno-religious
differences while conniving to loot the country, the majority of Nigerians who
actually suffer the consequences, still allow the same prejudices to influence
them when approaching issues of common interests e.g. leadership incompetence,
corruption or social crises.
This is largely because many presumably
educated analysts have unfortunately abused their God-given talents and
descended too low by addressing issues of strategic importance based on
prejudice.
One can easily tell the ethno-religious
identity of a particular analyst from his implied but easily discernible
defence or justification of a particular public figure involved in a corruption
scandal, simply because he happens to share the same ethno-religious background
with him.
On the other hand, if the analyst happens to
come from a “rival” ethno-religious background, he makes sure that he does not
miss a chance to (at least impliedly) attack the entire ethno-religious group
of the public official in question, since the crime was committed by their
fellow tribesman.
This is unfortunately the reality, and whoever
dares to sound objective risks being branded a traitor of a sort or
ethno-religious bigot by his fellow tribesmen and others respectively.
Consequently, the pattern of average Nigerians’
reactions to issues reflects that unfortunate trend, because instead of
focusing on issues most of them are carried away by prejudice. This explains
how many of them take advantage of the anonymity provided by the Internet to
unleash and exchange unprintable insults and abuses against one another's
tribe, religion and region.
It is not uncommon to see many comments on a
particular article for instance but only a few of such comments actually
address the points raised in the article. As a matter of fact, a mere title of
an article is unfortunately considered enough to make comments on the purported
opinions of the writer, without actually going through it.
Interestingly enough, notwithstanding the
complexity of Nigeria’s predicaments, this particular seemingly insignificant
but increasingly growing trend, represents the most difficult ring to unravel
in finding a sustainable solution to the country’s crises. This is because it
has created a situation whereby a whole population coexisting together, share
little or no any common strategic goal to achieve, thereby frustrating any
effort to mobilize the necessary popular commitment to effect the desired
change in the land.
For instance, irrespective of the
unquestionable credibility of General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), I did not attach
any importance to his recent warning of revolution in Nigeria, because I am
sure that, revolution is not likely to occur in Nigeria in the foreseeable future
despite the fact that the socio-economic condition is actually ripe for it.
This is because, some critical preconditions are lacking e.g. popular consensus
on the objectives of the revolution, common ideological base and mutual trust
amongst potential comrades.
The average Nigerians, who are expected to
carry out the revolution, seem to share nothing in common except perhaps
poverty, which of course does not differentiate between an Ijaw fisherman in
the creeks and a Hausa peasant farmer in the core north.
Moreover, today in Nigeria there is no single
public figure charismatic enough to mobilize an extensive fellowship that cuts
across all ethno-religious boundaries, organize and mobilize them to conduct
revolution in the country.
Worse still is the fact that, when the masses
get too exhausted to endure anymore, and in the absence of such necessary
organization, they may spontaneously revolt in an unorganized way ushering in
complete chaos in the land, God forbid.
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