A questionable relapse

Also published in Daily Trust 

After what seemed to be a short-lived jubilation following the reported military success against Boko Haram militants in north eastern Nigeria, there has been a gradual but persistent relapse into the pre-state of emergency time in the region over the past few weeks, which indicates the failure of the military to maintain the momentum and follow through with the operation.

It is quite unfortunate that, over the past weeks the security situation has been mysteriously relapsing at an alarming rate. Though bomb attacks have virtually disappeared, there has been a dramatic escalation of attacks on civilians, which result in huge losses of life. After suffering setbacks, Boko Haram militants are now back where they storm mosques, schools, markets, villages to kill people and unleash terror and sorrow. As they also intercept vehicles on highways and other roads to brutally torture and slaughter people.

For instance, while the trauma of Benesheik massacre still lingers, the militants stormed a college in Gujba, Yobe state where they killed more than fifty students in cold blood. Moreover, last Sunday they ambushed two commercial vehicles between Ngamdu and Benesheik where they reportedly slaughtered several people also.

As they have always maintained, Boko Haram’s targeted attacks against civilians are aimed at scaring the public away so as to prevent them from cooperating with the security agents in their fight against them. After all, the sheer cruelty that defines such attacks as represented by the beheaded, mutilated and bullet-riddled human bodies, which are frequently found, is too gruesome hence admittedly horrible enough to indeed instil a terrible horror in mind. 

I was devastated when I recently watched a video showing how some suspected Boko Haram militants slaughtered a lady suspected of being an agent of the State Security Services, SSS.

However, this dramatic relapse is quite hard to explain in view of the fact that it comes while the state of emergency imposed in the region is still ostensibly in force, as it also comes while Boko Haram militants are said to be on the run after they were reportedly dislodged from their bases and considerably weakened, as claimed by various security sources over the past few months.

It is also ironic in view of the fact that, it coincides with the establishment a new army division made up of only military personnel after disbanding the Joint Task Force on counter-terrorism operations in the North East, JTF, ostensibly to crush the militants once and for all. These, among other things, highlight the irony of the situation and underscore the need for urgent explanations from the relevant authorities.

Though I hardly resort to conspiracy theory to analyze events especially in a country like Nigeria where, due to the entrenched and indeed cherished culture of impunity, the elite don’t have to be too sophisticated in their approach to plot and execute any self-serving plan, nevertheless I suspect a conspiracy behind this dramatic relapse.

Considering the steadily gathering political momentum that is likely to pose a real threat to President Jonathan’s ambition to continue in office in 2015, and in view of the growing desperation among the political elite, one can’t rule out foul play behind this alarming relapse. There are strong indications that, out of sheer desperation, the issue of security crisis in the north could be manipulated in the increasingly messy politics of 2015 elections. 

This questionable relapse could therefore be a result of a deliberate plot to ease the pressure on the militants, so as to allow chaos to reign in the region hence justify the need for taking some extraordinary measures that will affect the outcome of, particularly, the presidential elections in 2015, by, for instance, declaring the region too unsafe to conduct elections in it.

After all, an overwhel-ming chaos in the north east and the north in general is also likely to be an effective blackmailing tool to be used by the incumbent president, who is apparently growing more desperate to cling to power in 2015, in order to extort as much political concessions from the northern political elite, who are desperate to reclaim their lost ground in the country’s intrigue-ridden power struggle.

Besides, a chaotic situation of such magnitude, which actually looms as long as the status-quo persists and the situation continues to relapse further, could be easily capitalized upon by the few but obviously vocal and influential divisive elements among the political elite to push for the idea of dividing the country when the national conference, which the President has decided to convene gets underway. 

Anyway, whatever might be case; security issue must not be manipulated for political interests. After all, nobody can predict the extent to which it may deteriorate if left unchecked. And as the situation stands now, Nigerian government represented by the military authorities and other security agencies remain vulnerable to suspicion of being manipulated by some conspirators among the politicians to cause chaos in the north east and the region at large in order to achieve their political interests.

No matter how prepa-red or stubborn Boko Haram bandits are, they can’t match up with Nigerian army and other security operatives in terms of training, expertise and weapons. Besides, with the growing public support for tougher actions against them and the rate at which people overcome their fears and prove their preparedness to cooperate with security operatives in the raging conflict, there has never a better time to consolidate the successes achieved against the militants and defeat them.
(Editor’s note: This piece should been published last Friday.)