If I were a northern elder….

Also published in Daily Trust

Though since its independence from Britain in 1960, Nigeria has managed to contain many of its serious challenges without necessarily addressing them, and even survived existential threats, many observers rightly believe that, the situation is simply unsustainable.

For instance in his aptly titled book, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink, John Campbell, a former US Ambassador to Nigeria addresses the situation in the country and warns of an inevitable state failure if the status-quo persists.

Obviously one doesn’t have to conduct any research to realize and confirm this fact. Because against the backdrop of the worsening sense of frustration among the general public, deepening public polarization along regional and ethno-religious divides, deteriorating security and socio-economic conditions, shrinking public confidence in the increasingly confused political elites who also lack political will to tackle the crises, a spontaneous system collapse can’t be ruled out.

Besides, since the country’s largely apathetic political elites who are also actually responsible for this mess in the country are not prepared to live up to their responsibilities towards the country as a united entity, and in order to avoid the overwhelming turmoil necessarily associated with a spontaneous breakdown of law and order in the land, I see no reason why this strange bedfellows union called Nigeria shouldn’t be peacefully renegotiated, in order to divide it into as many countries as possible to ensure peace, stability and prosperity for all.

I believe it’s high time that, northern elites and the other so-called nationalists elsewhere reconsidered their stand in this regard. They have often resisted and frustrated any attempt to divide the country, yet they, in collaboration with their counterparts elsewhere, have neglected, undermined and indeed abused the principles of good governance in the region and the country at large. It’s high time that they realized that, the resultant economic hardship, social and political instability in the land, which also gave rise to the accumulated tension, mutual distrust and resentment among Nigerians have further pushed the country to the extreme edge.

 Therefore, I if were a northern elder I would embark on a campaign to enlighten my peers across the region and of courses the ruling elite in the region to recognize the fact that, their vehement insistence to keep this union in its current shape has not only failed but has actually outlived its relevance also. Because, among other things, the region’s hitherto cohesive social fabric and inter communal harmony have suffered what could be described as an irreparable damage. It is now in tatters; hence it’s too insignificant to play the role it used to play in the past. As a matter of fact, the region is no longer able to function as one viable political entity in the event of the country’s spontaneous disintegration or systematic separation.

Moreover, I if were a northern elder who held a position of a significant influence in the past, I would be bold enough to admit my share of guilt and that of my colleagues and my generation in general for our failure to nurture the little but efficient and expandable infrastructure base left by the British, sustained, improved and substantially expanded by the region’s first and only Premier, Sir Ahmad Bello, Sardauna.

However, I would not only admit guilt and lament failures, because mere lamentation is pointless while things continue to deteriorate. I would therefore focus on the way forward. Obviously, the way forward begins by recognising the fact that, this union (i.e. Nigeria) is approaching its end, and that if it is allowed to crumble spontaneously the consequences would be extremely catastrophic, hence there is urgent need to put appropriate measures in place to avoid this eventuality.

Recognizing this fact would, and indeed should, inspire a profound change in the region’s strategic policy making strategies. Besides, the region’s policy makers should afterwards begin to prepare a comprehensive strategic project plan that addresses the region’s socio-economic, political and indeed all other things necessarily required to run a functional, viable and sovereign political entity, as they should also identify and redraw the region’s territorial boundaries. 

Moreover, the implementation process of this strategic project plan should be aimed at positioning the region on a socio-economic and political position strong enough to absorb the shockwaves of a spontaneous and total system failure in the country, or in such a way that it enables the region gradually disengage in a measured manner.

Incidentally, though the other regions do equally grapple with huge challenges, they, in the event of separation, have better chance of surviving as viable sovereign countries anyway. For instance, with its vibrant commercial base, strategic geographical location and a relatively better educated human resource base, the South-west has the potential to grow into a strategic commercial hub strong enough to sustain itself as a country.

Likewise, with its small and medium industrial base, the South-east also has the potential to become a viable country on its own, while with its oil resources and established exploitation and exportation infrastructure, the South-south has enough sustainable resources.

It is therefore clear that, the earlier the process of preparing and implementing this strategic plan for the north begin, the better, because, notwithstanding its huge economic potential, the region is particularly vulnerable and disadvantaged compared with the other regions in the country. After all, these huge economic potential in the region obviously need huge investments, and it also takes time to develop the infrastructure base necessarily required to explore and exploit it.