Elections in insurgency-held areas

Also published in Daily Trust

Despite the enormous coercive and tempting instruments of power at the disposal of the PDP-led federal government, which it never hesitates to employ in politically-motivated occasions, its prospect of clinging to power in next year’s presidential election faces the most serious threat as represented by the accumulated sense of frustration and disappointment being expressed by Nigerians over President Goodluck Jonathan’s failure, or inability, to tackle the country’s worsening socio-economic turmoil and political instability.  

Fortunately also, the ethno-religious trick it has often used, especially under the present administration, to further divide and sustain the disunity among people and distract them from recognizing the urgent need for a collective and relentless approach to advocating for good governance and the end to their  shared predicament of poverty, is being exposed, as a growing number of Nigerians are realizing how they have been ethnically and religiously manipulated by corrupt politicians and some vested interests masquerading as ethnic or religious leaders.

Though the main opposition party, i.e. All Progressives Congress (APC) gloats over the PDP’s decline and the dwindling popularity of its government, and also capitalizes on this situation to promote itself, it, and indeed the vast majority of Nigerians desperate for change, seem to underestimate the extent to which the PDP’s megalomaniac elite are prepared to go in order to cling to power.

By the way, though I don’t subscribe to the conspiracy theory that directly links the federal government to Boko Haram crisis, yet the government’s obviously inadequate commitment to tackle it and the growing suspicion of the complicity of many elements within it as well as some well-connected individuals in facilitating the persistence of the crisis substantiate the allegation that various powerful vested interests with connections in the corridors of power and in collaboration with some officials are taking advantage of the crisis to serve some mischievous and divisive political agendas.

After all, just a few months before next year’s presidential election, the persistent display of the lack of sufficient commitment, to say the least, on the part of the government to end the insurgency, which results in the mysterious and dramatic territorial losses to Boko Haram insurgents in the northeast sub-region could prove the allegation of a plot to undermine the potentially game-changing effect of the massive voter base of the northeast and the northwest, which constitute the political stronghold of Gen. Buhari (rtd), the APC’s most likely presidential candidate in the forthcoming election.

Interestingly enough, according to an investigation published in Daily Trust on Monday, November 3, 2014, Boko Haram now controls more than 20,000 sq km of Nigerian territory, which is larger than Imo, Abia and Ekiti states combined. The investigation also maintains that, there are more than two million Nigerians in these occupied territories. Yet, as the status quo of government’s apathy with its demoralizing impacts on the largely demotivated Nigerian army persists, more and more Nigerian territories are likely to fall into the hands of Boko Haram insurgents.

Obviously, under these circumstances, even if elections are held in the country as scheduled, the Boko Haram-held areas will definitely remain no-go areas for INEC staff and indeed all Nigerian officials, which means there will be no elections in those areas at all, and that all the votes, the vast majority of which is most likely to go to Buhari, will effective be lost.

Moreover, if this situation persists it will substantially affect voter turnout even in the relatively safe areas in the north, because in the absence of adequate security measures, many people may, out of fear for their lives, not turn out to vote. Besides, the insurgents are most likely to step up their bombing campaign during the elections and may specifically target voting centres in their desperate efforts to frustrate the election process and undermine democracy, which they passionately hate.

In any case, while the elections approach, the above gloomy scenario looms and indeed looks quite inevitable, and, of course, it takes no effort to predict the result, which is the outright victory of President Jonathan and, by implication, the continuation of the status quo. Nevertheless, the opposition as represented by the main opposition party, the APC don’t seem to fully realize the political implication of this situation on the outcome of particularly the upcoming presidential election.

To avert this catastrophic scenario in spite of government’s clumsiness or reluctance to live up to its responsibilities and turn things around on the ground, the  state governments, stakeholders and people of the northeast, which is the worst affected sub-region and also the state governments and people of the northwest, which is increasingly vulnerable to similar security deterioration should explore workable security initiatives to, at least, halt the current spate of territorial losses to Boko Haram insurgents and indeed stop the country’s gradual slide into an overwhelming anarchy.

This can be achieved through systematic and extensive mobilization drive across the two sub-regions with a view to raising dedicated, disciplined and reasonably armed and trained vigilante corps. I believe that, with sufficient motivation and proper coordination, such vigilante corps can successfully halt Boko Haram insurgents’ advances, because basically Boko Haram fighters are also civilians who have no proper and professional military training. After all, a combined team of local hunters and vigilantes were yesterday reported to have liberated Maiha town in Adamawa state after they had killed more than seventy Boko Haram terrorists.