Neutralizing the incumbency advantage

Even in advanced democracies where politics is largely issue-based and where performance determines the incumbent’s reelection chances, incumbency advantage exists and it indeed favours the incumbent, one way or another, anyway.

While this is not necessarily bad, politically speaking, after all, a particular incumbent may still be better than the other contenders vying to unseat him, it is obvious that, incumbency advantage in Nigerian politics accords the incumbent a disproportionate political advantage that easily enables him to retain his position or practically install his favoured candidate while he vies for and indeed “wins” another elective office if he can’t constitutionally run for the same position anymore.

Boko Haram: Attributions of blame

Also published in Daily Trust 

As blame game and conflicting conspiracy theories over the identities of the vested interests (if any) behind the emergence, persistence and escalation of Boko Haram crisis continue to circulate, the fact that the crisis reflects the extent of our collective failure as a country cannot be disputed.

Yet, fairness necessarily entails attributing appropriate portions of blame to the actual person(s) or party/parties responsible for each particular aspect of the crisis. This, after all, determines the nature and scope of what is expected of individuals, communities and, of course, the government in order to come up with a collective approach to end the crisis. By the way, this method is the first realistic step towards addressing all the other challenges bedevilling the country.

Anyway, as Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, the largest portion of the blame goes to President Jonathan, particularly as it relates to the persistence and escalation of the terrorists’ attacks, since, having come to the presidency after the terror gang had already emerged, he can’t be held responsible for playing any role in its emergence.

Worries over Buhari’s candidacy

Also published in Daily Trust

                                (L-R)     Buhari, Atiku & Kwankwaso

Now that the much desired consensus among the APC’s top presidential contenders is not likely to be achieved after all, primary election to elect the party’s presidential candidate appears inevitable. Each of the opposition party’s three main presidential hopefuls, Muhammad Buhari, Atiku Abubakar and Kano state Governor, Rabi’u Musa kwankwaso is busy lobbying the party’s delegates who will elect the party’s presidential candidate, in order to secure the highest number of votes and win the party’s presidential nomination in the forthcoming primary election.

Though I don’t belong to any political party as I believe that candidates should be assessed and elected based on their individual qualities rather than their partisan affiliations, yet I believe that each of the three APC’s main presidential aspirants would, if elected, perform much better than the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan.

‘Yan tauri and the fight against terror

Also published in Daily Trust

Though many countries struggle with Boko Haram-like terrorism, the recent exploits by some gallant vigilantes of local hunters and ‘yan tauri against Boko Haram terrorists underscore the peculiarity of the situation in Nigeria and also highlight the urgent need to explore effective local strategies to combat Boko Haram insurgency.

Similarly, the growing public support for the idea of involving ‘yan tauri and local hunters in the ongoing fight against Boko Haram reflects Nigerians’ disappointment and lack of confidence in the ability of the Nigerian Army to tackle the insurgents.

Elections in insurgency-held areas

Also published in Daily Trust

Despite the enormous coercive and tempting instruments of power at the disposal of the PDP-led federal government, which it never hesitates to employ in politically-motivated occasions, its prospect of clinging to power in next year’s presidential election faces the most serious threat as represented by the accumulated sense of frustration and disappointment being expressed by Nigerians over President Goodluck Jonathan’s failure, or inability, to tackle the country’s worsening socio-economic turmoil and political instability.  

Fortunately also, the ethno-religious trick it has often used, especially under the present administration, to further divide and sustain the disunity among people and distract them from recognizing the urgent need for a collective and relentless approach to advocating for good governance and the end to their  shared predicament of poverty, is being exposed, as a growing number of Nigerians are realizing how they have been ethnically and religiously manipulated by corrupt politicians and some vested interests masquerading as ethnic or religious leaders.