Dilemma of the Core North

Also published in Daily Trust on Friday, 3 February 2012

I followed with interest the comment made by General Babangida (rtd) at the Daily Trust Annual Dialogue held recently in Abuja, in which he warned of his readiness to take up arms again in order to protect this country from disintegration. Also in a subsequent interview with BBC Hausa service, the General lamented to the effect that the sacrifice he had made and the loss of more than one million Nigerian lives during the thirty months long civil war would have been in vain if the country is left to disintegrate.

IBB’s warning comes amid escalating existential challenges facing the country at a rate never experienced since the end of its civil war more than four decades ago. And it also comes when an increasing number of some ethnic groups that make up the country are calling for the review its terms of corporate existence, alluding to the possibility of going to the extent of using force to affect it. 

Incidentally, even though it is obvious that such ethnic groups don’t have any specific understanding on even the geographical basis on which they want the country divided, they nonetheless effectively agree on at least one demand i.e. getting rid of the core north in particular. 

On their part, the core northern Nigerian elites particularly those with military backgrounds have often warned against any move to divide this country under any circumstances, equally alluding to their readiness to go back to the trench in order to prevent it.

 

Perhaps this is the only issue on which the entire core northern Nigerian elites have absolute consensus regardless of their political persuasions, partisan affiliations and philosophical ideologies. For instance, in a well prepared research presented more than a decade ago entitled “The Misrepresentation of Nigeria: The facts and the Figures” late Dr. Yusuf Bala Usman had argued vehemently in favor of Nigeria’s continued corporate existence, where he eloquently debunked many misconceptions surrounding its historical evolvement as a corporate state. 

Interestingly enough, in addition to the conventional arguments repeatedly cited by the advocates of the status-quo, which largely highlight the pre-colonial historical and socio- commercial links between various Nigerian ethno-religious components, Dr. Yusuf went ahead to also establish the existence of geological, hydrological, climatic, linguistic and geographical commonalities between various Nigeria’s ethno-religious groups long before the advent of the colonial powers. However, poor Dr. Yusuf, he died with a burning desire to see a better Nigeria that evokes hope and inspiration in its citizens.  

In a nutshell, Nigeria’s continued corporate existence is a red line as far as the core northern Nigerian socio-political elites are concerned. However, in as much as such commitment is laudable, it is pretty lamentable that it has not been matched with appropriate performance in leadership particularly over the last few decades. 

This is especially considering the fact that, the political elites from this particular sub-region had (until just a little more than a decade ago) used to (almost exclusively) call the shots either directly or indirectly in the country’s leadership affairs.

Ironically however, their performance in general neither reflected their much touted belief in Nigerian project in general nor justified the huge influence they have enjoyed over the decades. After all, their region remains one of the most economically backward regions in the world and is progressively competing to become one of the most volatile also.

By the way, ordinarily whoever claims a commitment to something to the extent of warning to go to war in order to protect it is expected to practically prove that commitment in the maintenance and improvement of that thing. As a matter of fact this is only what determines whether he is really honest and serious in his claim or not.

Anyway, as result of their commissions and omissions the bond which hitherto bound the region’s diverse ethno-religious groups has now eroded, ushering in mutual distrust and hatred between them, which also frequently deteriorate into atrocities.

Consequently, the concept of northern region is fast shrinking into a mere reference to Hausa-Fulani, Kanuri and other smaller predominantly Muslim ethnic groups. While the minority ethno-religious groups in the region, from where the majority of the northern regular army who fought for the continued corporate existence of Nigeria in the 60s came, do no longer identify themselves as northerners per se. In fact, every now and then their different organizations disassociate themselves from northerners and instead seek to identify themselves primarily on religious basis to connect with some other religious groups in the region and elsewhere.

For instance, only recently an organization called United Middle-Belt Youth Congress; UMYC expressed the region’s regret to fight on the northerners’ side in the 60s in the first place, vowing to not repeat what they call “that mistake”.

Nonetheless, the core northern Nigerian elites seem to have taken things for granted more than necessary, counting on some luck and coincidences, which have influenced circumstances in their favor in the past, as a result of which they often underestimate similar warnings from concerned individuals and bodies.

They don’t seem to realize that, they have rendered the average core northerners (on whom they obviously count when they warn of taking up arms) too disappointed, too dejected and too demoralized to fight in order to prevent this country from disintegration, because they hardly if at all see anything worthwhile enough to warrant risking their lives for despite enduring miserable lifestyles in general. 

  

Incidentally one doesn’t necessarily need to have anything tangible in order to fight for its protection, but he definitely needs to have a hope inspirable enough to make him risk his life for it. As a matter of fact, without such a hope, even if one has tangible assets worthy of risking his life in order to protect, he will not have the amount of courage necessary to make him prevail.

In view of these circumstances, it is obvious that not even the average core northerners let alone the minority ethno-religious groups would go to any war if the other regions or some of them decide to get rid of the north or core north for that matter. As matter of fact, should the core northerners decide to fight anyway, the minority ethno-religious groups would probably go against them.

Hence as things stand now and unless some fundamental socio-political and economic transformations take place dramatically in the north, there seems to be nothing capable of preventing the eventual removal of particularly the core north sooner or later, notwithstanding what sort of political circumstances would emerge in the aftermath. 

I therefore implore particularly the core northern Nigerian elites to wake up and face this reality. They need to swallow their largely empty pride in order to realize that there is no alternative to the provision of good governance that will restore hope to the people. Once people’s hope is revived they will automatically become proactive hence appropriately productive, and thus become motivated enough to make any sacrifice for the region and indeed the country no matter how costly.