Conspiracy theory, between two extremes

…also published in Daily Trust

As a belief that some self-centered and extremely cunning vested interests manipulate situations, incidents or phenomena in some ways too clandestine for the average observer to observe, conspiracy theory remains one of the most controversial issues.

Though there is hardly any aspect of human endeavour that’s spared of conspiracy theory-based explanations, the politics of internal, regional, continental and global power struggle attracts most of such controversial explanations.

There are obviously many views and arguments supposedly proving or disproving the theory, however, the two particularly irreconcilable views on the extreme sides of the equation overshadow the rest.

On the one hand, there are those who reject the notion of conspiracy theory in its entirety, believing, instead, that it’s simply a myth accepted only by the gullible. They argue that with the level of scientific development, intellectual penetration, public awareness, socio-economic integration and political sophistication achieved today, the dynamics of things in the modern world are too transparent to be conspiratorially manipulated by some extremely few vested interests. This explains why many, if not most, of them contemptuously regard those who suspect some sort of conspiracy behind a particular incident, as uncivilized.  

Besides, thanks to the better and bigger access to the mainstream print and electronic media the deniers of conspiracy theory enjoy, many people feel too intimidated to expose any clue of conspiracy (no matter how credible) behind an incident, for fear of being tagged conspiracy theorists. This trend is particularly observable on social media where many people with apparently reasonable suspicions of some sort of conspiracy behind some incidents often sound too intimidated to argue in order to prove their suspicions for fear of exposing themselves to ridicule. Interestingly, this is even though most people are actually, consciously or unconsciously, conspiracy theorists par excellence, including those who supposedly reject the theory, for they tacitly, albeit largely unconsciously, allude to it in their comments and analyses on issues and incidents. 

Anyway, on the other extreme side of the equation, there are ridiculously unreasonable conspiracy theorists who attribute virtually every awful situation to a conspiracy. They simply ignore the relevance of the normal course of events and processes that lead to the occurrence of an incident, and they indeed disregard the underlying dynamics behind it. They cling to any real or perceived clue to justify their belief in conspiracy theory. However, as compulsive conspiracy theorists, they always betray excessive sense of insecurity, defeatism and pessimism, as they are also always in search for any silly excuse to cover up their laziness and justify their failure to pursue and achieve their individual and collective potential.

Obviously both the holders of these two extreme views are equally narrow-minded albeit in different ways. On the one hand, the former (who reject conspiracy theory) perceive things in a too superficial way in light of what they imbibe hook, line, and sinker from the mainstream media, which undermines their ability to reason critically. On the other hand, the latter (compulsive conspiracy theorists) remain at the mercy of some largely unfounded suspicions, which undermine their ability to reason realistically.

This explains why when a fervent denier of conspiracy theory seeks to proffer a solution proposal to a complex issue surrounded by circumstantial clues of a suspected conspiracy, his solution proposal often turns out too simplistic to address the issue. Equally, a compulsive conspiracy theorist has the tendency of unnecessarily complicating issues with conspiracy-based explanations, which render his solution proposals (if any) largely too impractical.

Now, the reality is that, conspiracy is indeed a reality. In fact, it isn’t a modern phenomenon, after all. It has been an integral part of the strategies employed in power struggle since time immemorial. It has persisted and would not only persist all the time, but would actually grow even more sophisticated over time.

Of course, for one to be considerably informed in the intricacies of conspiracy, he needs to intellectually break loose from the grip of official rhetoric, narratives and explanations of events disseminated by the mainstream media. He needs to appropriately broaden his intellectual horizons from as many credible alternative sources as possible. Sources like memoirs of former important players and stakeholders who actively took part in the particular incident under consideration, their well-documented testimonies and other relevant documentaries etc., are indispensable in this regard. Incidentally after all, most of the exposed serious conspiracies perpetrated by some of the most advanced intelligence agencies in the world e.g. the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the British MI6 and the Israeli Mossad, have been largely exposed through such sources.

Anyway, one also needs to be smart enough to harness relevant circumstances and underlying dynamics of incidents and events to come up with intellectually irrefutable conclusions.

Nevertheless, this approach shouldn’t be at the expense of pragmatic perception of things where the deniers of conspiracy theory have obviously gone to the extreme. Instead, he needs to maintain appropriate balance between the two extremes.

It’s pertinent to point out that, governments, particularly those grappling with challenges rightly or wrongly associated with conspiracies, should equally address their respective challenges accordingly. After all, they equally have intelligence agencies supposedly intended to handle real or suspected conspiracies targeting their strategic interests.

Obviously, a country like Nigeria, for instance, which has been increasingly grappling with serious security challenges and existential threats that bear the hallmarks of conspiracies, needs to employ appropriate counterintelligence strategies to get to the actual underlying dynamics behind the persistently worsening security situation in the country and tackle them accordingly.